It Could Get Worse

by Paul on December 13, 2006

Washington Post, December 8:

On the political front, the administration is focusing increasingly on variations of a “Shiite tilt,” sometimes called an “80 percent solution,” that would bolster the political center of Iraq and effectively leave in charge the Shiite and Kurdish parties that account for 80 percent of Iraq’s 26 million people and that won elections a year ago.

Vice President Cheney’s office has most vigorously argued for the “80 percent solution,” in terms of both realities on the ground and the history of U.S. engagement with the Shiites, sources say. A source familiar with the discussions said Cheney argued this week that the United States could not again be seen to abandon the Shiites, Iraq’s largest population group, after calling in 1991 for them to rise up against then-President Saddam Hussein and then failing to support them when they did. Thousands were killed in a huge crackdown.

Washington Post, December 12:

Prince Turki al-Faisal, Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the United States, flew out of Washington yesterday after informing Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and his staff that he would be leaving the post after only 15 months on the job, according to U.S. officials and foreign envoys. There has been no formal announcement from the kingdom.

The abrupt departure is particularly striking because his predecessor, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, spent 22 years on the job. The Saudi ambassador is one of the most influential diplomatic positions in Washington and is arguably the most important overseas post for the oil-rich desert kingdom.

New York Times, December 13:

Saudi Arabia has told the Bush administration that it might provide financial backing to Iraqi Sunnis in any war against Iraq’s Shiites if the United States pulls its troops out of Iraq, according to American and Arab diplomats.

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia conveyed that message to Vice President Dick Cheney two weeks ago during Mr. Cheney’s whirlwind visit to Riyadh, the officials said. During the visit, King Abdullah also expressed strong opposition to diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran, and pushed for Washington to encourage the resumption of peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians, senior Bush administration officials said.

The Saudi warning reflects fears among America’s Sunni Arab allies about Iran’s rising influence in Iraq, coupled with Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. King Abdullah II of Jordan has also expressed concern about rising Shiite influence, and about the prospect that the Shiite-dominated government would use Iraqi troops against the Sunni population.

Cheney was obviously summoned by the Sunni Custodians of Holy Mecca and Defenders of the Faith, a.k.a. controllers of our oil supply, a.k.a. W’s close personal friends, so that he could hear that those Sunnis he’s eliminating in his “80 percent solution” have some very powerful friends. I have a feeling they don’t think they’ve been paying for our army to create an Iranian client state in Iraq.

That the usually circumspect Saudis have gone dramatically public about it reinforces the message.

What’s worse than a power-drunk torturing autocrat rattling against the bars of his cage of international inspections and sanctions, while oppressing his countrymen? How about eliminating that autocrat and clumsily creating a power vacuum that invites sectarian conflict, threatening a proxy or actual war between Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia, with Hezbollah and al Qaeda in the mix?

Where do we go from here? I wish I knew. I know I’d feel better if instead of talking about an ill-defined “victory” or “success”, the White House would at least hint that they realize they need to prevent a catastrophic regional conflict. Sadly, I don’t see them as even grasping the complexity of the players and dynamic within Iraq, much less the international context. No wonder the Saudis had to use a 2×4.

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